About the New Form of Conflict

December 18, 2023
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11 mins read

Wars have a philosophy. It is quite difficult to describe the periodic wars that take place without seeing the change in this philosophy. 

WAR

War essentially defines humanity. It is one of the most critical efforts aimed at focusing on winning while living through the breadth of human struggle, from cruelty to morality and conscience, from desires to patience and courage, and all the contradictions that exist.

Many instructive lessons in human history were written on the battlefields. Great words in the battlefields came from great thinkers, true leaders. Those who think small darken history, and what they darken is well-known!

The warring parties fight in the regions they declare as the battlefield. To die or not to die! This is done by pushing the limits of all known methods to win at all costs, using deceit and propaganda extensively, and by controlling.

However, a rightly thinking soldier thinks more about neutralizing and defeating the enemy than killing them, and their terms reflect this.

War has its own law. By law, it means the true soldier’s consciousness of fighting bravely, which is a moral and conscientious sensitivity. A true soldier never abandons bravery. If we talk about committing terror, then the war deviates from its rules and strays from the essence. For example, using disproportionate force or chemical weapons, as per the laws of conflict, are prohibited behaviors that cause massacres.

The battlefield does not mean ‘where humanity ends,’ and it should not. But it is the darkest scene of humanity, though this is only one aspect. Such is humanity! Dark pages have always been and will always be part of the human story. People can distinguish between trustworthy and untrustworthy if they look correctly.

Here is the story of humans, politics, and disregard for law; these characteristics existed yesterday and will exist tomorrow! Examine closely; law, justice, conscience, rules, etc., for whom, take a look. This is a fact! Due to this reality, it is necessary to note some points of change or difference in ways of fighting. What I am expressing to you is that, in the end, I am talking about Lucifer or Neomedievalism (the idea of New Medievalism). If you ask where we will be tomorrow, you will see…

Why peace cannot be achieved in the desired manner and time. Why are wars fought? This is the point I focus on. Some boundless powers fight, then an international decision comes out, which the other side accepts. This power that characterizes boundlessness ignores the decision and takes one more step to expand its gains. This method can be explained as a kind of “practice of using power.” As long as you cannot defeat this boundless character, it will apply this method. If it were to be defeated, the international community would rush to protect it, this is also known.

Do not forget, the goal is neither to wage war nor to make peace; the goal is to manage the “gain strategy” process. If the winner is always the boundless power, the problem for humanity continues. The hope for solving fundamental problems disappears. Pretending to do something, progressing to the limit of a solution, then distracting others at that limit and stepping back, is a diplomacy style for the boundless.

Countries in the region of the boundless power, while preparing their national defense doctrines (or national defense strategies) or assessing threats and vision for armament programs, will have to take this “created reality” into account. For years, powerful countries directed others with this systematic method. For instance, documents considered by some experts are shown as if they are essential. This is another explanation of being part of a method containing artificiality. Do you know what all these are called? Supposedly, serving peace! But in reality, it is constantly “preparing for the next uncertain war.” These significant documents should be based on your knowledge, findings, will, ideals, politics, vision, strategy, and doctrine. All these are related to looking forward with hope!

The world hoping for peace suddenly turns back to the beginning; massacres, assassinations… These even open the door to war again. The implementation of chaos management is staged. The target of assassinations may be a symbolic person, but in reality, it is peace that is being killed. Therefore, such matters should not be overlooked by saying, ‘it’s just an action.’

CHARACTERISTICS OF CHANGING WARS

Today, on the world stage, flag-bearing countries can change certain positions, large capital and banks, and institutional structures can easily take sides. Because international law and customs can change and should not be an obstacle for the next step, unexpected and unrecognized structures can rapidly develop a common understanding, ultimately bringing forth new characteristics deemed sufficient to reshape the scene of determination and deterrence.

If we examine certain taboos, examples can be given at points that force change. For instance: “I am right in terms of international law, no one can do anything to me!” No, today this understanding has changed, common interests are focused on changing the world, and there are believers in this. “I can easily defeat my enemy!” No, today the hyper-powerful world can determine what you should fight with and directly involve itself in such problem areas. “I have many weapons in my inventory, I will win anyway!” No, quantities no longer matter, the global strategic approach has reshaped the front, and approaches to be used for new and qualified actions now determine success.

It has been known since old times that “winning the battle” does not mean “winning the war.” However, today’s problems are much more complex: “Who orchestrated the war, which country and power will intervene when, who are the fighters, what are their motives, what are they expecting, is all this a war, or something else, if it is a war, who will determine the outcome, how will the timing be decided?..”

Proceed with names competent in the wars or superiority struggles of the new world, do not be deceived by looking too much to the right and left! Because even popular names that seem to provide information and are actually used are not safe; they serve someone. The number of people thinking, “I mind my business, I get my money,” is increasing. This is worse than an unnamed virus that will cause a kind of epidemic; it is a sick way of looking. In this environment, “real leadership” is important. We come back to being human again! The cure for humanity is again in humans…

STRATEGIC HURRICANE

Strategists work on scenarios of what could happen in the future. Similar work is done in terms of political vision. On the other hand, life normalizes everything that happens, even the extraordinary events. Extraordinary events should have a shock effect on the field, right? Just as there are shock absorbers in systems, certain opportunities mounted to life in the global order absorb these shocks. Then you see that these abnormal developments give the impression of being normal.

However, there are critical stages like those experienced today, where even if strategists see them as possible, a series of uncontrollable and more massive events collapse onto life like an avalanche. Let’s call this a “strategic hurricane.” The hurricane continues to hit! So, what to do?

The Ukraine-Russia War started, and with it, many regional and global effects automatically came into play. Things that were thought very difficult to happen became easily acceptable and digestible. Especially in North Korea, Taiwan, the Middle East, Iran, Afghanistan, Indo-Pacific areas, many potential critical issues were fueled from all sides. In contrast, we listened to these as if they were just news in our daily lives. If there was a war, if the war didn’t affect our work much, we could ignore what happened. For example, we knew about the United States’ grand strategy and global military presence. We were following China’s development. We listened to Global Warming talks. We knew about NATO’s expansion. But when the Ukraine-Russia War started, the world began to boil! With this heat, we heard harsher words, propaganda and cyber threats became effective, faster productions and armament campaigns started… Probably those resilient to these chaotic conditions in the post-Ukraine period will progress.

Then suddenly, on October 7, 2023, the Israel-Hamas issue came to the agenda. From the very beginning of this crisis, the US and its allies pointed to “guilty Iran and its proxies.” There were questions; what about the Palestinian issue. After the Gulf War, the US is making its biggest military buildup in the Middle East in this crisis.

If all these happenings are uncontrolled, it is very dangerous!

After World War II, conditions and opportunities for preparedness for strategic hurricanes improved. The Fourth Industrial Revolution supported this. Which powers or countries can use these opportunities today? They are at an advantage. They are also the architects of many campaigns, make no mistake. Strategic hurricanes affect some critical places in the world excessively, and some events suddenly come to the forefront. Countries are tested in terms of strategic preparation, resilience, resistance, and patience.

On September 8, 2023, an important warning came from UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres during the G20 summit. He said, “Divisions are growing, tensions are rising, and trust is eroding; the specter of fragmentation and ultimately conflict is increasing. My urgent call to the G20, we cannot continue this way. We must come together and act together for the common good.

GLOBAL DESPERATION

We have extensively discussed globalization. The important thing here is the development of new normals concerning current and future conflict and competition conditions.

The situation where global problems rapidly spread, leaving large masses unresponsive, the normalization of significant changes within these conditions and their perception, and policies allowing the establishment of new normalization conditions… The Global Desperation Syndrome is propagated through politics, conventional and social media, using tools and equipment related to the Digital Age and the strengthening Fourth Industrial Revolution. Global events like the economy, pandemic diseases, terrorism, war and fear of war, energy crises, and scarcity are the subjects.

Especially in certain geographies, masses are exposed to chaotic and paralyzed states due to the Global Desperation Syndrome. Those interested in politics must understand this global state. Otherwise, they become part of the problem, often without realizing it. If they are aware, they are paralyzed.

If you are in a state of global desperation, how do you escape it? Does anyone know? Should we ask Vladimir Putin if he has an idea? Or has Chinese President Xi Jinping found ways to protect himself? The U.S. drags the populations of target geographies into chaos with Global Desperation, paralyzing the environment or desiring it to be so. Strategically, the Smart Power applies the Full Spectrum Warfare method. If you are a political target of the U.S., even in peace and legal order, you are subjected to a national security issue.

HABITUATION

I was amazed when the U.S. left Afghanistan, people clinging to the plane, some of them children, falling to the ground after takeoff. Televisions broadcasted these images, they were served in the media, everyone shared them… The media constantly shared “real” images about the Taliban, Afghan people, Kabul, Kabul Airport. Interestingly, all of these were instructive. Not just Afghanistan, America, and politics, but they made one question humanity deeply. We will keep and talk about the images of chaos and drama displayed in Afghanistan for decades… However, if we consider these experiences or witnessed events within the context of “global change” and “new normalization,” these instructive images will “become habitual,” and that will be “the real bad” for human history.

Another thought of those who regulate the ecosystem of conflicts is to create a state of exploitable disorder, instability, chaotic conditions, loss of value (corruption, poverty, disputes with realities and life…). Then the architects of conflict arrange the environment and set everything into motion at once. This takes a long time, but that’s how it is. These are included in the arrangements crafted by intelligence services over many years.

Let’s leave these topics to Lucifer… To become collectively habituated! Why is such a result so desired from people? If this is the case, everyone is responsible for taking the right step, and there is nothing more to say. Sometimes even existing institutions cannot protect people! Because in this Intelligence War, the “ecosystem setup” is important.

PROXY WAR

These Proxy Wars are full of immoralities. You say weapons, empty! Asymmetry, empty! Irregular, empty!.. Here, the immoral aspect of conflict can be explained by being subject to powerful political manipulation.

POLITICS

Politics is such a powerful subject that it separates brother from brother, just like North and South Korea. Conversely, it unites dissimilar people for the sake of opportunism, just like America. How does a power element embracing boundlessness conduct politics today? How does it separate brothers from brothers, nations from nations?

Generally, politics organizes the conditions and interest-gaining topics of the future. Looking at our discussed topic, it is quite striking that the mind planning to manage instability and chaos also advances conflicts while managing political and diplomatic processes. Politics is done closely tied to economics and technology. All together bring new order, new world issues, and the realities concerning the struggle and competition conditions. These are increasingly developing into challenging issues.

IMPOSITION

Large countries create big problems for their medium and small-scale adversaries and then say, “choose from within.” The choice they want to impose will be one of the problems or solutions they offer! Here is where politics is in play; in a sense, politics arranges the choices and conditions. Essentially, this is a method of imposition. In reality, imposition is a trap based on the adversary’s choice.

Such a contradictory situation arises that all those known fundamental concepts and principles are subjected to melting in the faced environment. For example, the concept of sovereignty is known and a right for countries. Under the imposing conditions of a great power, a small power is forced to defend its sovereignty. But even that sacred right has already been melted into another problem by the great ones. Suddenly the issue is placed on an “existential” foundation.

PERCEPTION

Today, in crisis regions, the powerful can play every kind of scene. They can direct everyone. Perception management! New concepts and habits… The real issues are fundamentally disconnected.

TRUE LEADER

Leaders are responsible for ensuring that issues do not reach the wrong points. Politics is not a place for following up on tasks and showing off. A leader becomes a true leader if he first thinks of “all humanity.” If the leader is a soldier, he must fight bravely.

NEOMEDIEVAL WAR

Where are we heading? Towards a new Middle Ages?

Neomedievalism is the expression of an order where those showing themselves in areas of shared interests increase, where both state-centered and non-state actors can play roles, and many actors can be used on the field. Neomedievalism does not care to forewarn the collapse of states, disappearance of actors, or the start of anarchy. Instead, it leaves every problematic issue to its own devices as per the new global system, feeds it, looks at where benefits can be extracted, and accepts “permanent disorder.” In accepting such a “chaotic” environment as part of continuing life, each power element uses its unique methods and other power elements.

What are the objectives of Neomedieval War? Not to conquer the target country or region, but to corrode it from within. To poison the human and leader-based system, accuse, oppress, exploit. To develop the acceptable margin of distortions, ugliness, and conflict in social perception. To spread anarchism covertly. To manage the chaotic environment it causes.

I have always emphasized this neomedievalist understanding when looking at developments in the Middle East for a long time. However, I believe global terrorism has not yet reached the level of creating a significant global chaos. At least, even if global terrorism was mentioned, it was believed that the strings were in the hands of dominant powers. Now the situation is clear! Leading powers, especially the U.S. and other dominant actors, influence certain processes so effectively that it seems like the door to a new Middle Age is opening.

Concepts are repulsive. Even this understanding can be criticized by many. But the important thing is to define what is happening and develop an assessment of where we are heading.

CONCLUSION

Moving away from waging war bravely does not yield good results! Since managing strategic hurricanes and chaos is now a topic supported by technological advancements, we do not have a legal understanding to say no to the destabilization attempts of dominant powers or technologically advanced communities (some of which may be anonymous powers) and their efforts to gain benefits from it. We see a Global Desperation Syndrome spreading like a disease. Continuous new normals and impositions are pumped into those targeted. They are intended to habituate to an artificial situation. Proxy wars are fed with all immoralities. Politics has become synonymous with manipulation and interest. Perceptions can be easily changed, thoughts suppressed. We are gradually approaching a new Middle Ages war. At this point, leadership for humanity, for people, becomes once again important.

He was born in Çanakkale in 1961. He graduated from the Air Force Academy in 1982 with a degree in Electrical and Electronic Engineering. He served in various intelligence roles as a staff officer both domestically and abroad. He worked as an intelligence instructor and School Commander. He signed many documents published in the Armed Forces. He participated in the Bosnia and Kosovo Operations under NATO. He undertook special duties and administration in counter-terrorism efforts both domestically and internationally. He served as a Military Attaché. He retired in 2007 following his position as the Director of Air Force Intelligence. He held senior management positions in the private sector both domestically and internationally. He has published works, one of which is his latest book titled "Barış Pınarı." He is currently consulting, blogging, and providing commentary in the media on Intelligence, Politics, Defense, Security, Strategy, and Geopolitics.

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